预测市场平台 Kalshi 显示，CLARITY 法案在 2027 年前通过（passing）的概率在一周内从接近 75% 下滑至 50%，反映出该加密市场结构法案的胜算急剧走低。近几天的下跌表明，人们对该立法在国会中的推进路径的信心正在加剧不确定性，即使该法案本月早些时候已在参议院银行委员会以 15-9 的投票结果推进。交易者认为，拥挤的参议院日程、关于可生息稳定币仍未解决的争议，以及银行业利益方的持续抵制，是该法案进展的主要障碍。
CLARITY 法案旨在建立一个监管数字资产的联邦框架，并明确美国证券交易委员会与美国商品期货交易委员会各自的职责。该立法被视为国会开展的最重要的加密监管工作之一，并且是在围绕加密货币应如何分类与监管展开数年争论之后推出的。
Stablecoin Yield Dispute
A central sticking point remains the treatment of yield-bearing stablecoins. The debate has pitted crypto companies seeking flexibility in offering rewards programs against banks that argue such products could compete directly with traditional deposits.
The issue has been at the center of negotiations for months. In March, CoinDesk reported that lawmakers were attempting to break a legislative deadlock through a compromise on stablecoin yield provisions after disagreements delayed progress on the bill.
More recently, Bloomberg reported that banking groups were pushing for last-minute changes to a compromise crafted by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks regarding stablecoin rewards. Banks continued to press lawmakers to tighten restrictions on products that could resemble interest-bearing deposit accounts.
Current Legislative Draft
The latest Senate draft reflects ongoing negotiations. According to CoinDesk, the legislation would prohibit interest or yield paid solely for holding payment stablecoins while allowing certain transaction-based rewards programs to continue under specific circumstances.
Banking Industry Position
Banking industry concerns have been echoed publicly by major financial institutions. JPMorgan Chase Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum raised concerns about allowing stablecoins such as USDC to generate yield for holders, reflecting broader industry arguments that such products could disrupt traditional banking models.
支持者倡议
尽管预测市场上的怀疑情绪不断升温，立法支持者仍继续辩称，势头依然保持。参议员 Cynthia Lummis 是国会中最突出的数字资产立法倡导者之一，她一直在推动该法案获得通过。
